How to Draft the Next Great WR in Your Fantasy Football League

When I started playing fantasy football back in the 1998 season Jerry Rice was still the best WR in football, and fantasy football. I joined a keeper fantasy football league that year with a friend of mine and as we talked draft strategy he kept lamenting that he wanted Jerry Rice but couldn’t get him because he was obviously being kept by the fantasy owner who had him in our fantasy league. I kept saying to him that Rice was getting old and that I didn’t want him, I wanted the Next Jerry Rice.

So I began looking at fantasy stats to see if I could find the next great WR that way. I didn’t come up with a perfect plan to find the next Jerry Rice but I did find one stat that was, and still is, a very useful tool for finding the next great WR.

The stat is yards per catch, or average yards per catch. When a young WR has a high average yards per catch in a limited number of catches, usually around 20-50 catches, that WR could explode the next season and be the next great WR. I’ve found the magic number to be 14.5 yards per catch average or over.

I’m going to give you some examples of what I mean, and then list all the young WR’s from last season who match the criteria. The young WR’s are far from sure things to be the next great WR and should be drafted as 3 rd , 4 th and 5 th WR’s on your team. If you hit with one of them your off to the races in your fantasy league.

Terrell Owens – in his rookie year he made 35 catches good for 520 yards, a 14.9 average per catch. I took him with my second pick in my very first Fantasy Football Draft right after Marshall Faulk with my 1 st pick in that fantasy draft (keeper league). TO went on to grab 60 catches for 936 yards, a 15.6 average, with 8 touchdown scores in his second year. And then he exploded in his 3 rd year for 67 catches, 1097 yards, 16.4 average and 14 more scores. Now with the Dallas Cowboys, of course.

Steve Smith – in Smith’s second season he had 54 catches good for 872 yards and a gaudy 16.1 average, but only 3 scores. I took him early in a keeper league and he went on to post 88 catches with 7 touchdown scores in his 3 rd year. He was especially good the second half of the year greatly helping many fantasy owners, including myself.

Joe Horn – in his fourth year he made 35 catches with a 16.7 yard average per catch. The next year he exploded with 94 catches for 1340 yards and 8 scores.

Javon Walker – had 41 catches in his sophomore season with a great 17.5 yards per catch average and 9 scores. He exploded his 3 rd year with 89 catches and 12 scores. He was so good his second season though he was kept in many fantasy leagues, including mine.

Young WR’s with high yards per catch averages in 2006:

• Devry Henderson (New Orleans Saints) – 32 receptions, 23.3 yard average, 5 scores.
• Hank Baskett (Philadelphia Eagles) – 22 receptions, 22.1 yard average, 2 scores.
• Mark Bradley (Chicago Bears) – 14 catches, 20.1 yard average, 3 scores.
• Demetrius Williams (Baltimore Ravens) – 22 receptions, 18.0 yard average, 2 scores.
• Nate Washington (Pittsburgh Steelers) – 35 receptions, 17.8 yards per catch, 4 scores.
• Reggie Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) – 46 receptions, 17.7 yards per catch, 8 scores.
• Ruvell Martin (Green Bay Packers) – 21 receptions, 17.0 yards per catch, 1 score.
• Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons) – 30 receptions, 16.9 yards per catch, 0 scores.
• Chris Henry (Cincinnati Bengals) – 36 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 9 scores.
• Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers) – 27 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 6 scores.
• Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh Steelers) – 29 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 2 scores.
• Terrance Copper (New Orleans Saints) – 23 receptions, 16.7 yards per catch, 3 scores. Former Dallas Cowboy.
• Matt Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) – 41 receptions,15.7 yards per catch, 4 scores.
• Brandon Marshall (Denver Broncos) – 20 receptions, 15.5 yards per catch, 2 scores.
• Bernard Berrian (Chicago Bears) – 51 receptions,15.2 yards per catch , 6 scores.

A few of these WR’s will likely explode in the 2007 season. If you pick the right one in your fantasy football draft he might just lead you to a Fantasy Football Championship this year.